Egypt: 2018-19 Statistical Risk Assessment for Mass Killing

"Our statistical model estimates that there is a 24.0%, or approximately 1 in 4, chance of a new mass killing beginning in Egypt in 2018 or 2019. Egypt ranks 3rd highest among 162 countries." - according to analysis from the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the U.S. Holocaust Museum.  


According to our model, the factors that explain Egypt’s risk score include a lack of freedom of movement for men, the country’s regime type (anocracy), a large population (the largest of any country in the Middle East), its geographic region, the presence of political killings, a history of mass killing (2013–14), and a recent coup d’etat. Beyond the factors evaluated in the model, we note that Egypt faces multiple security and human rights challenges. There have been reports of large-scale attacks by extremist groups, including IS, on Christians and Sufi Muslims, and violence against civilians perpetrated by both insurgents and government forces in the Sinai Peninsula."